Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 201.676812 240.196976 286.305216 346.229170 423.036426 519.554742 6.522512e+02
2025-09-28 152.805516 197.489032 257.076945 344.543651 473.574498 663.676387 9.788782e+02
2025-10-05 133.033958 183.043303 255.626894 373.365120 569.498544 903.932662 1.571656e+03
2025-10-12 118.419750 171.092887 252.867783 396.922409 663.436086 1182.647522 2.426828e+03
2025-10-19 106.509215 160.104606 248.057545 414.249437 751.570774 1495.280772 3.633811e+03
2025-10-26 96.080393 149.209971 240.521714 423.723951 827.339671 1825.305751 5.266338e+03
2025-11-02 86.800274 138.499437 230.873357 426.017585 888.342386 2159.328810 7.408135e+03
2025-11-09 77.759583 126.751163 217.035300 415.908896 916.418746 2424.379243 9.782927e+03
2025-11-16 70.251562 116.678085 204.606367 405.706840 940.722015 2699.383502 1.286704e+04
2025-11-23 63.827303 107.758501 192.987436 394.565861 958.695182 2971.594592 1.677376e+04
2025-11-30 62.222969 107.695790 199.228358 427.336976 1119.500654 3951.097224 3.047686e+04
2025-12-07 58.429439 102.873254 194.649661 431.961592 1195.532433 4660.830774 4.695377e+04
2025-12-14 55.495385 99.596494 193.330264 446.179376 1317.784883 5811.252089 8.488885e+04
2025-12-21 51.731531 94.199231 186.471361 443.676550 1380.146321 6746.891535 1.403372e+05
2025-12-28 50.884540 94.777898 193.506551 483.521530 1638.766878 9594.735802 4.203923e+05
2026-01-04 49.576867 94.191489 197.661710 516.323486 1896.684390 13320.789063 1.583467e+06
2026-01-11 47.888799 92.553882 198.936006 540.572776 2138.165752 17963.265664 8.914646e+06
2026-01-18 45.838892 89.861326 197.077378 553.874257 2337.829895 23236.502196 1.159913e+08
2026-01-25 43.562844 86.404522 192.688105 557.098631 2486.849465 28828.509285 1.005220e+11
2026-02-01 40.845771 81.655972 184.171017 542.899611 2520.029526 32699.933646 NaN
2026-02-08 38.373250 77.270552 176.111716 528.602721 2546.032305 36917.914122 NaN
2026-02-15 36.078509 73.115040 168.191092 513.028806 2555.049022 41128.530896 NaN
2026-02-22 35.926537 74.118144 175.006986 558.954223 3070.475302 68787.878290 NaN